Monthly Archives: January 2007

It’s all eyes on the Fed today as the market sits patiently, waiting for the 2:15 P.M. EST press release. Despite strong 2006 Q4 growth figures and a five percent spike in oil prices yesterday, there is an eerie calm … Continue reading →

60 days ago, markets put a 36% probability that the Fed would lower the Fed Funds Rate by March 2007. Today, that probability is zero. If you’re wondering why mortgage rates have ascended so quickly, that’s part of your answer … Continue reading →

After a week of bludgeoning in which mortgage rates rose as much as 0.50% on the heels of a supposed housing sector rebound, don’t expect the fireworks to stop anytime soon. This Monday and Tuesday will be quiet with respect … Continue reading →

Mortgage bonds continue their slide after yesterday’s outright hysteria. Today’s New Homes Sales showed a 4.8% jump in December to an annualized pace of 1.12 million homes. This is about 14% higher than July’s pace and some economists are wondering … Continue reading →

Existing Home Sales showed weaker-than-expected numbers this morning, but that hasn’t stopped the slide in mortgage-backed securities. This is a counter-intuitive movement so let’s take a deeper look. First, the supply of homes dropped from 7.3 months to 6.8 months. … Continue reading →

With the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet for two days beginning January 30, the Fed has entered "blackout mode" and no Fed speakers are slated for the next week. Combine Fed Silence with lack of economic data, and … Continue reading →

Adding complexity to the home financing process, The Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 includes new tax code for homeowners. The act grants itemized deductions for private mortgage insurance (PMI) and government mortgage insurance (MIP) expense premiums paid … Continue reading →

Last week, economic data showed that the economy continues to grow at a healthy pace and that last year’s fears of an economic recession may have been overblown; wholesale and consumer prices were up 1.1% and 2.5% annually, respectively. With … Continue reading →

Today’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed that Americans are feeling terrific about the state of the economy. The index jumped to 98.0 in January from last month’s 91.7 level. On a broader level, this is not an important … Continue reading →

Housing Starts handily beat economists’ expectations this morning and CPI showed strength, too, sustaining the market momentum that has trended mortgage rates higher over the last 30 days. The Federal Open Market Committee has repeatedly told us that it expects … Continue reading →